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By the Numbers: Most Overrated / Underrated teams of the last decade

Submitted by on June 14, 20107 Comments

Over-ra-ted

The chants would rain down as the clock winds down, the home underdog clinching victory from a ranked opponent. It’s a scene college football fans are all too familiar with in the past few seasons as upsets littered the college football landscape.

But were they? Who is in fact, the most overrated team of the past decade?

Since the adoption of the BCS, a team’s position in the preseason rankings has a direct impact on its shot at playing for the title by seasons end more than ever.

Exhibit A: Auburn in 2004. USC and Oklahoma, ranked #1 and #2 during the preseason never relinquished their stranglehold on the top 2 spots until USC beat the Sonners in the championship game at seasons end. Auburn started off ranked #17 in the AP preseason poll was shut out of the title game despite also going undefeated eventually ending up ranked #2 behind preseason #1 USC in the final poll.

Most overrated Teams of the past decade:
1. Florida State (-72)
2. Tennessee (-63)
3. Michigan (-47)
4. Florida (-37)
5. California (-36)
6. Oklahoma (-31)
7. Clemson (-26)
8. LSU (-21)
T9. Georgia (-20)
T9. Nebraska (-20)
T9. Texas (-20)
Most underrated Teams of the past decade:
1. Boise State (71)
2. Utah (46)
T3. TCU (43)
T3. Iowa (43)
5. Oregon (38)
T6. Cincinnati (36)
T6. Boston College (36)
8. Washington State (34)
9. Alabama (31)
10. Penn State (27)
Conferences:
1. Mid Majors (214)
2. Pac-10 (42)
3. Big East (32)
4. Big Ten (-20)
5. SEC (-79)
6. ACC (-80)
7. Big 12 (-81)

So even the dubiously insignificant preseason poll which is released weeks before the first snap is even played, has a major impact on determining the chances of each team’s title chances come early January.

Since the 2000 AP preseason poll, 73 different squads have secured a spot on either it’s preseason or season-ending version, but in the 16 seasons between 1991 to 2007, college football’s champion has come from outside the Top 10 only 4 times (#14 Michigan in 1997, #19 Oklahoma in 2000, #13 Ohio State in 2002, and #14 LSU in 2004).

During the last 22 seasons, 15 teams have lost a game and still managed to finish the regular season ranked in the top 2 in the BCS standings qualifying for a coveted championship game spot. But only one of those teams, LSU in 2003, started off the season ranked lower than 8th in the preseason poll.

So unless you are fortunately enough to find your squad in the Top 10 in this season’s upcoming preseason poll, your best bet at a shot at the national championship is an undefeated season.

So we at quebecpenspinning, set out to find which teams were the most overrated and underrated in the last decade starting with the 2000 preseason AP poll.

We took each team’s preseason ranking in the AP Top 25 poll and calculated it against where that team finished the season. For example, if Penn State was ranked #10 in the preseason poll and eventually finished #20 in the final season-ending version, Penn State ends up with -5 points.

Teams that started or finished the season unranked was given a ranking of #26. So if Penn State started the season ranked #15 and ended up unranked, it would end up with -11 points and vice versa.

This was calculated for every season starting in 2000 and the Delta (difference between preseason and final rankings) is accumulated.

Keep in mind I am well aware of the limitations of such a formula. An example, if a team is ranked #1 every single year since 2000 and won the championship 8 out of 9 years, but fell from the top spot to unranked in one season (-26 points in one season), that team would be considered one of the more overrated squads according to this formula. It is also much harder for a team that enters a season ranked in the Top 5 to improve than it is for a team ranked #24 in the preseason. Hence the teams that normally perform well and hold high expectations according to AP voters prior to each season are penalized. Ultimately the best way to use the formula would be to rank all 117 teams from 1 to 117 during the preseason and final version of the poll.

Unfortunately the AP does not rank teams past the Top 25 and although I acknowledge the limitations of the formula, it does provide for a great estimation as to the most overrated and underrated teams of the past decade.

With that all in mind, we hereby present the most overrated team of the last decade by the AP poll …

Florida State

The Bobby Bowden coached juggernaut of the 1990s has been demoted to the most overrated team of the past decade. In fact, the Seminoles are one of only 8 squads to be ranked in every preseason AND postseason AP poll since the 1999-2000 season. In the 10 seasons since 2000 though, Florida State finished with a lower ranking than they started with 8 times with the biggest drop coming in 2002 when they started off #3 with high expectations only to finish #21. The Seminoles finished the season unranked in 3 of the last 4 seasons, a stunning stat when you consider they have been a mainstay in the AP poll for 2 decades.

On the flip side, the most underrated team of the last decade is

Boise State

The upstart mid major program was ranked 3 times in the preseason version of the AP poll (Boise State did end up unranked in 2 of the 3 times they started the season ranked) during the last decade, but finished ranked in the final Top 25 on 6 occasions. Not surprisingly, Utah and TCU joins Boise State among the most underrated teams of the last decade often exceeding expectations around the country by seasons end.

  • This brings us to conference rankings. The most overrated conference of the last decade is the Big 12 (-81) followed immediately by the ACC (-80), then the SEC (-79). Combined, Big Ten squads also sit in the overrated region of the list, but at -20 it means pollsters most often than not, are generally accurate in their preseason polls when it comes to Big Ten squads. The most underrated automatic qualifying conference in the nation? The Pac-10 (42) followed surprisingly by the Big East (32), the only two AQ conferences in the black.
  • Those numbers however do not even come close to the collection of non-AQ conference members (214) who are the most underrated (collection of) conferences of the past decade. Boise State, Utah and TCU sitting #1, #2, and #3 on the underrated list respectively had alot to do with that astounding number.
  • Of the last 10 champions, all but 1 were among college football’s most overrated during the preseason in the last decade. The 1? Alabama, who is the 9th most underrated team of the last decade. Is there an inherent advantage of being overrated in the preseason? I should think so.

Penn State is among the nation’s Top 10 most underrated teams of the past decade, sitting at #10 on the list. The Nittany Lions managed to exceed or match preseason expectations on 4 occasions.

The entire list compiled into a table for your viewing pleasure.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 OVERALL
Florida State -3 -9 -18 2 -10 -9 -15 -7 5 -8 -72
Tennessee -14 4 -21 -3 1 -23 -2 3 -8 -63
Michigan -5 -8 3 -2 -6 -22 6 -13 -47
Florida -1 -2 -20 2 -15 -2 6 -7 4 -2 -37
California 3 -6 -5 -14 -14 -36
Oklahoma 18 -3 -3 -2 -1 -15 -1 0 -1 -23 -31
Clemson 1 -7 4 -11 5 -8 5 -17 2 -26
LSU 4 7 -12 12 -12 -1 5 1 -19 -6 -21
Georgia -10 4 5 4 -4 3 -8 11 -12 -13 -20
Nebraska -7 -4 -16 7 2 -6 -6 10 -20
Texas -5 0 -2 -7 2 1 -10 -6 7 0 -20
Miami (FL) 3 1 -1 -2 -5 -8 -14 7 -19
West Virginia 1 -16 21 -5 -3 -15 1 -16
Michigan State -1 -6 -8 2 -13
Ohio State -10 -3 12 -2 -11 2 -1 6 -7 1 -13
Texas A&M -3 -9 -1 -13
Iowa State 1 -13 -12
Virginia 4 -8 -7 -1 -12
Purdue 1 1 -2 -11 -11
UCLA -9 10 -12 -11
Northwestern -10 -10
Wisconsin -19 -4 -1 4 11 19 -17 -13 10 -10
Oklahoma State -2 10 -17 -9
Virginia Tech 5 -9 -2 -17 16 1 -2 0 2 -3 -9
South Florida -7 -7
USC -11 16 7 0 -1 2 -2 0 -18 -7
Arizona State -4 7 -6 -2 10 -11 -6
Marshall (WV) -5 -5
North Carolina -5 -5
SMU -3 -3
Washington 10 -4 -9 -3
Kansas State -1 -13 19 -7 -2
Auburn 8 12 -20 15 2 -5 3 -16 -1
Pittsburgh 7 -16 1 -3 -1 11 -1
Georgia Tech 9 -14 4 2 1
Missouri -8 22 -13 1
Colorado -2 17 -13 2
Fresno State 4 -2 2
Mississippi State 2 2
Navy (MD) 2 2
Bowling Green (OH) 3 3
Central Michigan 3 3
Toledo (OH) 3 3
Hawaii 4 4
Louisville 9 -9 20 -7 7 -16 4
NC State 14 -10 4
Rutgers (NJ) 14 -10 4
Minnesota 6 -1 5
Notre Dame 11 -8 9 -6 17 -15 -3 5
Wake Forest 8 -3 5
Arkansas 11 -5 6
Kansas 19 -12 -1 6
Colorado State 12 -2 -3 7
Illinois -5 14 6 -6 9
Stanford 10 10
South Carolina 7 8 -4 11
Syracuse 12 12
Mississippi 13 12 -12 13
Miami (OH) 16 16
Maryland 15 8 -2 -4 17
Texas Tech 8 1 -1 4 0 5 17
Oregon State 22 -15 5 1 8 21
BYU 1 10 12 -9 8 22
Penn State -4 8 23 -5 -9 14 0 27
Alabama -23 -1 15 18 18 4 31
Washington State 16 1 17 34
Boston College 5 5 4 6 16 36
Cincinnati 9 9 18 36
Oregon 19 5 -11 -3 14 -5 3 11 5 38
Iowa 18 18 11 -15 -10 6 15 43
TCU -1 3 0 15 0 -4 19 11 43
Utah 5 16 24 1 46
Boise State 11 10 14 -8 21 -2 15 10 71
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  • Wow

    Wouldn't it be cool if the chart was actually readable? Doesn't work in Firefox or IE.

  • http://quebecpenspinning.com/ Charlie

    It should work better now.

  • Robertjhall1

    Florida is team that won 2 national championships, how can they be over rated? And Boise State is only .500 against BCS schools since 02, how can they be under rated? I didnt bother to read to see if you listed your formula for determining these lists, but if it came up with the above ratings for these particular teams then its flawed.

  • http://quebecpenspinning.com/ Charlie

    And that is why the limitations to the chart and formula was mentioned and acknowledged. Always appreciate constructive comments though.

  • Robertjhall1

    Fair enough. But I dont consider it a limitation, I consider it wrong is all. I like the idea for the article, but if I do a math problem where 2 + 2 = 5 I dont print it stating limitations, because it is in fact wrong.

    Now, Im probably not being fair as your going year by year start and finish AP ranking, and that is clearly stated. Not mention math is exact and your article makes no claims as such. Still, I have a hard time considering a team that won 2 national titles in the last 5 years over rated. Virginia Tech, Maybe. Ohio State, some could claim. Oklahoma, certainly.

    Anyway, thanks for the response and I look forward to more articles in the future.

  • psudevon

    Robert, all this chart means is that more often than not, the Gators underperformed relative to pre-season predictions. Now, granted, when you're ranked in the top 5 it's pretty tough to gain positive points in this chart, and yes, they did win 2 titles, but that's not what this chart is measuring. It's impossible to quantify “acheiveness” without simply going by pre-season and post-season AP Rank, so we've got no other metric to go by.

  • Tdgentile

    I like this chart but I have one suggestion to improve it. Since not every team is included for all ten years, some have only 7, some 5, etc, divide your overall change value by the number of times (years) they were included. This will normalize their performance. For instance, Cincinnati, is included for only 3 years, yet they overachieved by 9,9, and 18, for an overall total of 36, which puts them tied for 6th most underrated, but when you divide by the 3 times they were included, they get an average of 12, which puts them in 2nd place on the underrated scale. This puts the teams with a small number of years in their “proper” place, as otherwise they just end up in the middle. Let me know what you think