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States like New Hampshire are often overlooked by college recruiters scouring the northeast. With a population of a little over 1.3 million (barely 14.5% of the population of New York City), the talent pool in …

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Game Tape Breakdown: Offense vs Iowa 2010

Submitted by on October 5, 2010No Comment

I’m going to try to make this Game Tape Breakdown a weekly feature, a compilation of stats that will hopefully provide further insight into Penn State’s offensive game plan during Big Ten play. But before I dive into it, I want to revisit the surprising reaction following the Iowa game.

I am simply appalled by the hysterical reaction following last Saturday’s game. Somehow losing to an opponent that was favored to begin with on the road under the lights is cause for panic and irrational hysteria even causing some to call for heads to roll. But of the accusation I find the most absurd is the idea that our coaching staff threw in the towel by choosing to punt with 4:40 left in the game still down 14 points.

But upon further review, that is simply not the case and I shall attempt to explain.

Setting up the situation: Penn State is facing a 4th and 6 on their own 46 yard line with 2 timeouts and a still very manageable 2 score game. (Iowa is up 2 scores, 17-3) Although the Hawkeyes have 17 points on the board, their offense has actually been stymied for much of the game. By this point, the average starting position for the Hawkeye offense was on their own 22.5 yard line, fairly even with Penn State’s average starting position of their own 26.5 yard line. But both touchdown drives by Iowa have in fact started on their own 49 and 32 yard lines. That’s a good 26.5 and 9.5 yards further than their average starting field position that have stalled against the Nittany Lions D.

Starting field positions of the Iowa offense
Now back to the down and distance situation. Remember that Penn State is facing a 4th and 6 on their own 46 yard line. Should they fail to convert, the Hawkeyes would take over on the Penn State 46, which would be the best starting position for the Hawkeyes since the start of the game. Considering that Iowa has taken advantage of and converted 2 of their 3 best starting field positions (Own 49, Own 42, Own 32) into touchdowns, it’s easy to see why Joe would prefer to pin the Hawkeyes into their own territory with a punt, rather than risk turning the ball over on downs in Hawkeye territory and a good 31.5 yards closer than their average starting field position where they have struggled to score against the Lions D.

But “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” Why would Joe Paterno not have the confidence to let the offense try to get a first down? Just take a look at offensive performance thus far. By this point, Robert Bolden has attempted 35 passes in downs that require 6 or more yards, only converting 12 of them. Amounting to a 34% success rate in similar scenarios as the 4th and 6 they are facing now. In fact, of the 35 passing attempts where 6 or more yards are required, 15 ended in incompletions (43%). When the rate of incompletions is higher than the rate of success in situations where Bolden was required to convert 6 yards or more, it doesn’t exactly instill a vote of confidence among the coaching staff.

So as a coaching staff you have a decision to make with just under 5 minutes left, but still armed with 2 time outs. You are just down 2 scores, but failing to convert this 4th and 6 (which Bolden has accomplished just 34% of the time in similar situations by this point) would allow the Hawkeyes to take over the ball on the Penn State 46 and risk a 3rd score. Don’t forget the Hawkeyes had converted 2 of their 3 best starting field positions into touchdowns by the time of this call, and giving the ball up on Penn State’s 46 would be a significant 7 yards closer to the endzone than their last best field position. By electing to punt, Joe Paterno actually provided the Lions a shot to stay in the game with sufficient time and 2 time outs remaining rather than panic and risk a game sealing 3rd score by handing the Hawkeyes a shortened field.

This all became moot when Bolden threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown for the game sealing 3rd score in the Lion’s following possession, but that’s besides the point. To claim that the coaching staff had given up on the game by electing to punt with 4:40 left is simply unsubstantiated. That decision was actually possibly the most logical one the coaching staff could have made based on the situation at hand and actually kept the Lions alive in the game. Was it the right call? Maybe. Was there sound logic behind it? Absolutely.

Now can we tone the angry rhetoric down just a tad?

Now the breakdown of Penn State’s offensive performance against Iowa.

RUN BREAKDOWN

Yards Sequence 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 3 6 1 4 0 0 0 21 0 2 -3 -2 26

Atrocious. Just take a look at the rushing yards sequence for Penn State until they turned the ball over on downs when Bolden couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone in the 3rd quarter (0 / -1 / 0 / 2 / 1 / 0 / -1 / -2 / 3 / 6 / 1 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 0). 6 rushing attempts for no gain, 3 attempts for a loss and none over 6 yards.

Evan Royster 0 -1 2 -2 3 6 4 21 -3 26
Rob Bolden 0 1 0
Silas Redd 0
Justin Brown -1
M Zordich 1 0
Stephfon Green 0 2
Kevin Newsome -2

It’s not as if Royster is to blame either. 7 different Lions carried the ball and only Royster managed to earn more than 2 yards on the ground. When the 6 other players (Rob Bolden (1), Silas Redd (0), Justin Brown (-1), M Zordich (1), Stephfon Green (2), Kevin Newsome (-2) ) managed a whopping total of 1 rushing yard all game on 10 tries, it’s tough to sell play action.

PASS BREAKDOWN

Pass Yards Sequence

7 Inc Inc -7 Inc 14 Inc 19 Inc Inc 26 Inc Inc Inc 17 6 4 Inc 49 5 11 Inc
4 4 18 9 5 Inc Inc Inc 7 9 10 -15 3 Inc Inc -2 6 INT 12 Inc 23 Inc

Penn State’s passing game struggled right out of the gates. 6 of the first 10 passing attempts were incompletions, including 3 straight possessions of 3 and outs.

Derek Moye Inc 6 4 7 10 Inc
Joe Suhey 7
Stephfon Green 17 4 Inc
Justin Brown Inc 18 9 9 6
Kevin Haplea Inc Inc Inc 23
Graham Zug Inc Inc Inc Inc
Evan Royster 5 3
Rob Bolden -7 -15 INT
Gary Gilliam Inc
Brett Brackett 14 49 Inc Inc
Silas Redd 19 -2
Moseby-Felder Inc
Devon Smith Inc 26 5 11 4 Inc 12
Chaz Powell Inc

A little better than the running game, but not by much. When Iowa is selling out against the run and wants Bolden to beat them, dropped passes is simply not acceptable. Yea, I’m looking at you Graham Zug!

Field Position Down Distance Play Type Yards Player
PSU 35 1 10 Pass 7 Joe Suhey
PSU 35 2 3 Pass Incomplete Justin Brown
PSU 42 3 3 Run 0 Evan Royster
PUNT
PSU 17 1 10 Run -1 Evan Royster
PSU 16 2 11 Run 0 Rob Bolden
PSU 16 3 11 Pass Incomplete Graham Zug
PUNT
PSU 26 1 10 Run 2 Evan Royster
PSU 26 2 8 Pass Sacked -7 Rob Bolden
PSU 21 3 15 Pass Incomplete Gary Gilliam
PUNT
PSU 14 1 10 Run 1 Rob Bolden
PSU 15 2 9 Pass 14 Brett Brackett
PSU 29 1 10 Pass Incomplete Gary Gilliam
PSU 29 2 10 Pass 19 Silas Redd
PSU 48 1 10 Pass Incomplete Graham Zug
PSU 48 2 10 Run 0 Silas Redd
PSU 48 3 10 Pass Incomplete Devon Smith
PUNT
PSU 33 1 10 Run -1 Justin Brown
PSU 32 2 11 Pass 26 Devon Smith
Iowa 42 1 10 Pass Incomplete Chaz Powell
Iowa 42 2 10 Run -2 Evan Royster
Iowa 44 3 12 Pass Incomplete Graham Zug
PUNT
PSU 17 1 10 Pass Incomplete Derek Moye
PSU 17 2 10 Pass 17 Stephfon Green
PSU 34 1 10 Pass 6 (PEN -10) Derek Moye
PSU 30 2 14 Pass 4 (PEN +10) Stephfon Green
PSU 49 1 10 Pass Incomplete Kevin Haplea
PSU 49 2 10 Pass 49 Brett Brackett
IOWA 2 1 2 Pass Down Ball (PEN -5)
25 YARD FIELD GOAL — END OF HALF
PSU 29 1 10 Pass 5 Devon Smith
PSU 34 2 5 Run 3 Evan Royster
PSU 37 3 2 Pass 11 Devon Smith
PSU 48 1 10 Pass Incomplete Moseby-Felder
PSU 48 2 10 Run 6 Evan Royster
IOWA 46 3 4 Pass 4 Derek Moye
IOWA 42 1 10 Pass 4 Devon Smith
IOWA 38 2 6 Pass 18 Justin Brown
IOWA 20 1 10 Pass 9 Justin Brown
IOWA 11 2 1 Run 1 M Zordich
IOWA 10 1 10 Pass 5 Evan Royster
IOWA 5 2 5 Run 4 Evan Royster
IOWA 1 3 1 Run 0 M Zordich
IOWA 1 4 1 Run 0 Rob Bolden
TURNOVER ON DOWNS
PSU 30 1 10 Run 21 Evan Royster
IOWA 49 1 10 Pass Incomplete Devon Smith
IOWA 49 2 10 Pass Incomplete Kevin Haplea
IOWA 49 3 10 Pass Incomplete Stephfon Green
PUNT
PSU 49 1 10 Run 0 Stephfon Green
PSU 49 2 10 Pass 7 Derek Moye
IOWA 44 3 3 Run 2 (PEN -5) Stephfon Green
PUNT
PSU 7 1 10 Run -3 Evan Royster
PSU 4 2 13 Pass 9 Justin Brown
PSU 13 3 4 Pass 10 Derek Moye
PSU 23 1 10 Pass Sacked -15 Rob Bolden
PSU 8 2 25 Pass 3 Evan Royster
PSU 11 3 22 Pass Incomplete Brett Brackett
PUNT
PSU 42 1 10 Pass Incomplete Derek Moye
PSU 42 2 10 Pass -2 Silas Redd
PSU 40 3 12 Pass 6 Justin Brown
PUNT
PSU 16 1 10 Pass Interception -33 Rob Bolden
DRIVE ENDS ON INTERCEPTION
PSU 29 1 10 Run -2 Kevin Newsome
PSU 27 2 12 Run 26 Evan Royster
IOWA 47 1 10 Pass 12 Devon Smith
IOWA 35 1 10 Pass Incomplete Kevin Haplea
IOWA 35 2 10 Pass 23 Kevin Haplea
IOWA 12 1 10 Pass Incomplete Brett Brackett
END OF GAME
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