With less than three weeks left until Selection Sunday, we here at quebecpenspinning are pleased to bring you our newest feature: Bubble Watch.  Because sometimes, it’s not about how well you do, but how the other guy does.  This will be the first installment of an ongoing series until they announce the brackets on March 15th.  We’ll start with a look at ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s last four in, and first four out.

Last Four In:

• Boston College: Stock BC had an up and down couple of games last week: a win over Duke gave them a mega credentials booster, but a loss at Miami, another bubble team, won’t help their chances.  At 7-6 in the ACC, 19-9 overall, BC is the definition of a bubble team.  They have a couple big wins, over Duke and UNC, but some bad losses against Saint Louis and Harvard.  Best out-of-conference win is probably Providence.
• Penn State: Stock We all know the deal with the Nittany Lions; some big in-conference wins, and no major out-of-conference victories at all.  They haven’t played since last Wednesday, a big win at Illinois that certainly boosted the tournament resume.  With games remaining at Ohio State and against Illinois, another big win could put the Lions over the top and into the field of 65.
• San Diego State: Stock The Aztecs have struggled in their last three games, sandwiching a win against Wyoming between losses at Utah and New Mexico.  They’re tied for second with three other teams in a crowded WAC conference, but I don’t see how they make it in to the tournament without winning the conference.  Their out of conference resume is weaker, if possible, than ours, and they have no wins over a ranked team.  Sure, they’re 18-7, but just 2-5 against the top 50.
• Maryland: Stock Did Maryland just play their way into the tournament with a stirring overtime victory over UNC?  At the very least, they resurrected their tourney chances, and moved to .500 in the ACC.  The team is pretty bipolar when you look at their resume: big wins over Michigan State, Michigan, and UNC stand out, but they have an awful loss to Morgan State that really sticks out.  With games left against Duke and Wake Forest, it may come down to stealing one of those contests.

Last Four Out:

• Cincinnati: Stock The Bearcats are coming off a tough week with losses against Pittsburgh and Lousiville.  It’s tough to expect, or need, a win against two of the best teams in the country, but Cincy’s in the position where they need a marquee win to get over the top and into the tournament.  They’re 7-7 in the Big East, right in the middle of the pack with some other bubble teams.  However, unlike those other teams, Cincinnati lacks a marquee win, with 0 coming against a team currently ranked in the top 25.  Two wins over Georgetown look less and less impressive every day, and while their out-of-conference resume boasts wins over fellow bubble teams UAB and UNLV, it lacks a major victory.  If they make it, it’s a testament to the perceived strength of the Big East.
• Notre Dame: Stock Left for dead after a horrendous, 7 game losing streak, Notre Dame has played their way back into tournament consideration with wins in two of their past three games, including a blowout win over Lousiville.  They have a one real nice out-of-conference win, coming against Texas, but have a dizzying array of losses, too.  Right now, they’re 15-11, and 6-8 in conference.  With four games remaining in the regular season, the Fighting Irish need to win at least three to have a shot.  That would include a win either at UConn or against Villanova.  Either would be a major resume booster.
• Temple: Stock The Owls have come on strong of late, winning their last 5 games in a crowded Atlantic 10, where 7 teams are within two losses of the conference lead.  They haven’t beaten any of the major A-10 contenders, but are boosted heavily by a solid non-conference resume which features wins over Penn State and Tennessee.  Even losses to Kansas and Clemson are RPI boosters.  With four games left in the regular season, Temple has a chance to distinguish themselves.  A win over Dayton or Saint Joseph’s would be big, advancing far in the A-10 conference championship bigger.  Still, it’s tough to see a 10-loss team from a non-power conference make it as an at-large.
• UAB: Stock Everyone knows how Conference USA works: It’s Memphis in first and everyone else fighting for second.  Well, with wins in their last 6 games, and 9 of their last 10, the Blazers have climbed into that #2 spot in the conference.  An out-of-conference win over Arizona is the best they’ve got, but with no other distinguishing wins, it’ll be tough for UAB to make the tournament as an at-large, even with such a strong finish. Their biggest game remaining comes Thursday night against Memphis.  A win there might just put them in.