I wrote this morning on Examiner a little break down for how Penn State can realistically be selected for a BCS at-large berth (as long as they win this weekend at Michigan State – not a given). But let’s use our imagination a little bit to figure out what it will take for Penn State to play in the BCS Championship game this January, shall we?

First, a look at the current BCS standings.

Florida and Alabama remain on top and both are locked into the SEC Championship game in a few weeks. Texas comes in at #3 and looks to be the team to beat in the Big XII. TCU and Boise State remain undefeated and could each play the role of BCS buster while Cincinnati looks to be on their way to earning the Big East’s automatic BCS bid.

Georgia Tech has clinched a spot in the ACC Championship game, where they will play either Clemson or Boston College. LSU, the third SEC team in the BCS top ten, will likely be shut out of the mix per the two team conference maximum. Pitt is ranked ninth (GAG!) and has a shot at the Big East title (EPIC Big East game next week between Pitt and Cincinnati looming after the Back Yard Brawl this weekend).

Then we have the Buckeyes, who are already in the BCS with a spot in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma State and Iowa each sit just ahead of the Nittany Lions.

Now we have some work to do. Let’s start just above Penn State and assume that the Nittany Lions pick up a road victory this weekend against Michigan State to complete the regular season.

It is entirely feasible that Penn State would be selected over an Iowa or Oklahoma State team with an identical record even though Iowa gave Penn State a beat down on their own home turf this season. Penn State would clearly bring more money than either school and thus could be a controversial pick if things unfolded that way. But just to play it safe, Oklahoma State could easily lose their regular season finale to rival Oklahoma. A loss this weekend to Colorado would be fine with me too.

As for Iowa, I would love to see Minnesota pick up some revenge for last year’s drubbing in the final home game in the Metrodome. But with Iowa taking two hits in a row, I think they come back strong in the final game with a BCS berth on the line. Let’s go Gophers!

Next up? Oregon.

The Ducks are interesting and may be the toughest team to get out of the way. The PAC 10 champion is still up in the air between Oregon, Arizona, Oregon State and Stanford. So even if Oregon should take a fall in the next couple of weeks (and history suggests that is not impossible) the PAC 10 champion will still take up one of the remaining BCS spots, likely in the Rose Bowl. But let’s give the PAC-10 to Arizona, who hosts Oregon this weekend. Arizona fell out of the BCS ranking after this past weekend’s performance, but still controls their own destiny in the PAC-10 race. even with three straight wins to finish up the season the Wildcats should remain behind Penn State. Three teams down, ten to go.

Ohio State has one game remaining and it is against Michigan. I find it natural to root for Michigan in this game every year, but I realize that many PSU fans may find it bitter rooting for Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines. But Ohio State is already locked into the Rose Bowl as a worst possible destination. A win could set the Buckeyes for a BCS Championship spot if things fall the right way (BCS and Big Ten haters beware!) but for Penn State to reach the BCS championship they will need Ohio State to be upset by Michigan this weekend. Michigan is already ineligible for a bowl game for a second straight season, so a win against Ohio State would likely make up for the pains in Ann Arbor for now.

The Big East will have a representative in the BCS and it appears to be down to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. I can’t stomach the idea of rooting for Pitt in almost any situation, and I may not have too. While the Bearcats are undefeated and making a case for the BCS championship game, an upset from 2-6 Illinois this week would totally derail Cincinnati from the golden land and would surely knock them out of the top ten. So I am hoping for an Illinois blowout (wishful thinking, but this entire thing is wishful thinking!). Also this weekend Pitt is playing West Virginia, and upsets are nothing new here. West Virginia has what it takes to beat anyone in the Big East, even though they enter 3-2 in conference play. The Mountaineers are looking to defend their undefeated home record and a win would take Pitt out of the BCS.

Here’s hoping for a pair of losses to the top two in the Big East.

With the Big East “powers” out of the way (acknowledging that one of them has to make it) we shift to the top of the polls to work our way down.

Florida and Alabama are locked in to playing each other in the rematch of last year’s #1-#2 SEC championship game. The winner has long been thought to play for the BCS Championship. But what if both of those teams were upset before the SEC championship game? Florida is not going to lose this weekend to Florida International (but an upset would destroy Florida’s chances of reaching the BCS championship) but a realistic possibility would be Florida State beating the Gators. Florida is clearly a superior team to their in-state rivals, but maybe Florida State is due for a win in this series. The last time the Seminoles won against Florida was 2003. It has not been pretty for Florida state in recent years, so hopefully Bobby Bowden can find a way to get his team prepared for the biggest upset under his regime i a long time.

As for Alabama, a loss to Auburn would be nice, but I would certainly enjoy watching the #2 BCS team go down at home to the FCS Chattanooga Mocs. A loss to Auburn seems more likely though, and Florida could beat Alabama in the SEC championship. If Florida loses to Florida State and beats Alabama, it could be a good thing for Penn State. Far fetched, but who knows.

Texas still has two games remaining against Big XII opponents before a likely spot in the Big XII championship game. The Big XII championship has seen their share of national title upsets in its history so one this year is not out of the question. But to play it safe root for a Kansas Jayhawks upset this weekend. To follow it up root for a Texas A&M upset on Thanksgiving. Oklahoma State is the only other ranked team in the Big XII so it appears to be Texas or nothing from this conference.

Then we have the pesky BCS Busters. TCU leads the way at #4 and figures to be big favorites against Wyoming (5-5 – one shy of bowl eligibility) and New Mexico (0-10). Hope that Wyoming makes a strong showing in their fight to become bowl eligible at home. As for New Mexico…well…cross your fingers.

Boise State has three games left and a loss is not impossible. Next week the Broncos take on Nevada at home in a game that likely will determine the WAC championship. Nevada is 7-3 overall and 6-0 in the WAC, good enough for first place in the WAC. Who knew?

Which brings us to the ACC. Georgia Tech is the only team that stands in the way of Penn State and they are locked into a spot in the ACC Championship game. They will play either Clemson or Boston College and the good news is that the ACC is a conference where it seems anybody can beat anybody else on any given day. While the ACC is guaranteed one team in the BCS, Georgia Tech still has a chance to fall out of the championship picture. A win by Clemson or Boston College in the ACC championship would take Georgia Tech out of the big picture and would not be enough to catapult either team past Penn State. But Georgia Tech still has a rivalry game next weekend against Georgia. Tech is the better team but pull for Georgia in this one, just to play it safe.

With the above combination of losses to key teams Penn State could easily jump into the national championship game (Heh…”easily”). But do not forget that if Florida and Alabama collapse that would open the door again for LSU, just as it would for Penn State. So once again, just to play it safe, root for Ole Miss to live up to their pre-season hype and come up with a win this weekend against the Tigers. Should that fail, root for Arkansas next week in another rivalry game.

Did I miss anything? Let me know!