As the Big Ten has looked to explore expansion over the past few months, the debate has raged not just over who would join the conference, or how many teams, but even whether it would lead to 4 superconferences seceding from the NCAA.  And while we’ve all been arguing semantics, Frank the Tank has been crunching the numbers, analyzing the math, and doing the real grunt work to find out just what the Big Ten might actually do.  While we wonder if Syracuse would be willing to leave the Big East with their basketball tradition, Frank’s been finding out what adding the upstate New York market would mean for expansion of the footprint of the Big Ten Network.  We here at quebecpenspinning reached out to Frank, and he’s been gracious enough to answer our questions.  Because his responses are so substantial, we’re going to break it up into two parts.  Today, a look at the feasibility of adding Pittsburgh, and whether Notre Dame, Nebraska, or Texas would really join the Big Ten.  Be sure to check back tomorrow, when Frank takes on more of our queries.

And now: on to the questions.

How much of Big Ten expansion is going to be centered around expanding the footprint of the Big Ten Network, and how much is about the schools themselves? Basically, does Rutgers’ proximity to New York make them a perfect candidate for the Big Ten, and on the flip-side does that make Pittsburgh, already inside the footprint of the BTN an nonviable candidate?

Expanding the footprint for the Big Ten Network is going to be extremely important, although there is going to be a dose of “sports common sense” applied where the conference does need schools that people actually want to watch.  Note that Notre Dame, which everyone assumes would be a massive money-maker for the Big Ten, wouldn’t expand the Big Ten’s footprint at all.  So, there’s still a ton of value in national brand names such as Notre Dame and Nebraska that don’t necessarily deliver large geographic regions for the Big Ten but whose national cache can either increase cable subscriber rates within the conference footprint or entice cable companies across the country to carry the Big Ten Network.

Rutgers and the New York City market is literally the multi-million dollar question for the Big Ten.  If there’s one issue that the conference is paying a lot of money to consultants to study, it’s to figure out whether it’s legitimately possible to get the Big Ten Network onto basic cable in the New York area.  So, if Rutgers and/or Syracuse could do that for the Big Ten, then they’re going to receive invites.  If it’s determined that they wouldn’t be able to add households in that region, then they’re going to have a very hard time getting invites unless the Big Ten gets a massive name like Notre Dame and Texas where it’s “playing with house money” and can take a gamble on that region.

Pitt is an interesting case because I’m fairly convinced that the Big Ten’s university presidents love that school’s academics.  It also has strong programs in both football and basketball.  Yet, the location is a massive detriment because Penn State already delivers the Pittsburgh market for the purposes of the Big Ten Network.  At the same time, Pitt isn’t a national name brand like Notre Dame or Nebraska that can necessarily compensate for the lack of new households (although the Panthers drew very good football TV ratings last season).  It’s possible that Pitt can make money for the conference if the ad rates for its games are high enough, but it’s a very tough call.  My gut feeling is that the only way that Pitt gets into the conference is if there’s a 5-school expansion where the Big Ten gets Notre Dame and really focuses on locking down the Northeast by also inviting Rutgers and Syracuse.

Are Texas, Nebraska, and Notre Dame just “pie in the sky” candidates? We’ve typically looked at what adding these schools would mean for the conference, but what could these schools possibly gain by joining the Big Ten?

I don’t think that Nebraska is a “pie in the sky” candidate at all.  Judging by comments from Nebraska’s chancellor this past weekend along with prior interviews with Tom Osborne, the Huskers are very willing to make a move (especially if the Big XII starts getting picked apart).  The increased conference TV revenue from the Big Ten along with the academic benefits of the CIC would be massive enticements for Nebraska.  So, Nebraska is the main “marquee” football school that would almost certainly accept an invite from the Big Ten.

The other two schools are unlikely to join the Big Ten, but it’s not impossible.  As with Nebraska and every other school in the entire country outside of the SEC, the Big Ten can offer both Texas and Notre Dame significantly more TV money.  The #1 myth perpetuated by college sports fans is that Notre Dame’s NBC TV deal is at the top of the industry, which was true several years ago but isn’t the case now.  Reports state that Notre Dame is receiving between $9 million and $15 million from NBC, where even the high end is much less than the $22 million in TV money that every single Big Ten member gets from the conference (whether it’s Ohio State or Northwestern).  A similar myth is that the unequal revenue sharing in the Big XII that benefits Texas is too great to give up, when in reality the Longhorns are receiving barely half as much TV money as all of the Big Ten members.

Now, a few million dollars in TV money isn’t necessarily going to cause either Texas or Notre Dame to join the Big Ten immediately.  Both schools are fairly happy to have the status quo to continue.  The question is whether the Big Ten exercises (or legitimately threatens to exercise) its ability to rock the status quo in a major way that directly impacts them.  As much as Notre Dame treasures its independence, if the Big Ten takes a couple of Big East teams, which causes that league to split, the Irish could find its non-football sports in an all-Catholic league that might be pretty good for basketball but wouldn’t be able to field competitive teams or even full leagues for Olympic sports.  While Notre Dame’s alums will only care about independence for football even if the Big Ten expands to 96 teams, Notre Dame’s administration is going care greatly about its overall athletic department which no longer has the benefit of being able to compete in a fully-funded BCS league.

Meanwhile, schools like Nebraska and Missouri could join the Big Ten to double or triple their TV money while simultaneously devaluing the Big XII TV contract.  Is Texas really going to let that happen?  It’s not a matter of the Big XII just adding schools like BYU and TCU – you can’t replace one of the top 10 football programs of all-time (Nebraska) and the largest population base in the conference outside of the state of Texas itself (Missouri) and expect to maintain the same level of revenue.

At the end of the day, I doubt that Notre Dame joins the Big Ten, but it won’t be because of money (which would actually be better in the conference).  The school’s alumni base is unbelievably fanatical about maintaining independence and that’s likely going to hamstring the administration from doing anything (who may see the writing on the wall regarding conference realignment and think that it’s in the best interests of the school to join the Big Ten but will get hung in effigy if they try to do so).

Texas, on the other hand, is going to insist upon making up the difference in TV money one way or another.  A lot of Big XII fans are VERY naive in thinking that Texas is just going to stick around because it has supposed “control” of the conference.  That control is really based on the unequal revenue sharing in the conference, but if equal revenue sharing in other leagues like the Big Ten yields 2 or 3 times more money, then no one should be surprised to see Texas end up somewhere new.  Maybe it will be the Pac-10 or Big Ten. (Note that Texas alums will tell you that the school will NEVER join the SEC because of poor academics.)  Maybe Texas stays in the Big XII to start up a Longhorn Sports Network (which is on the drawing board) where it make cable TV revenue that it can keep all to itself.  The main point is that Texas is definitely looking out for the best deal, whether it’s in the Big XII or outside of it.

We once again want to express our gratitude to Frank the Tank for offering his always insightful views on expansion.  Be sure to check back tomorrow when he tackles the profitability of a Big Ten Championship Game, the advantages of going to 12, 14 or 16 teams, and what he would do if he were Jim Delany.  To read more of his musings, and to learn pretty much anything you ever wanted to know about the financial aspects of Big Ten expansion, be sure to visit his blog: Frank the Tank’s Slant.