Check out The Case for Matt McGloin for the other half of our 2 part series

Even the most ardent Matt McGloin supporters are willing to accept that Rob Bolden is Penn State’s quarterback of the future.

But I’ll take that one step further: Penn State’s quarterback of the future should be their quarterback of the present, too.

Yes, Matt McGloin’s been great the last few weeks. Pressed into emergency duty three weeks ago against Minnesota, he did what it took to win the game, and followed that up with a solid performance under the lights against Michigan. And just two days ago, he came on in relief and overcame some early struggles to lead Penn State to the stirring comeback, earning Joe Paterno his 400th win in dramatic fashion.

And no, this is not meant to be a knock on McGloin–I’m honestly proud of the kid, who’s exceeded even our wildest expectations (and certainly Kirk Herbstreit’s), and in winning three games, probably has accomplished more than even he expected he could when he chose to walk on at Penn State, instead of pursuing a scholarship at a lower level.

But I’m not convinced he gives Penn State a better chance to go into Columbus and shock the Buckeyes. For all his intangibles that have been on display the last month: his leadership, his drive, his “it factor,” I don’t think his success won’t hold up over the long run, or against better defenses. No, his 3-0 record isn’t emblematic of his intrinsic ability to make things happen, but improved line play, the emergence of Penn State’s run game, and a specifically tailored playbook that’s minimized his weaknesses and allowed him to manage the game.

At the beginning of the year, we expected Penn State to be a run-first team. In fact, it wasn’t even a question that merited a second thought. Evan Royster was the experienced senior, on the verge of rewriting the Penn State record books. Rob Bolden was the true freshman who’d been with the program for all of a few months.

But come game one, the script was flipped. Bolden threw the ball 29 times against Youngstown State in the opener; Evan Royster had all of 11 carries. The trend continued the following week against Alabama, but out of necessity. Down from the start, Penn State never had a chance to establish the run game. It was another 29 passes from Bolden, and just 9 runs by Royster. And when Penn State came home, they took on the #1 rush defense in the country. Against Kent State, Galen Hall and Jay Paterno called for 27 passes from Bolden, and 11 runs for Royster.

Bolden was solid through the three games–he did about as much as you could expect–he’d completed 58% of his passes for 600 yards, though he’d thrown for 3 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. No, he wasn’t playing lights out, but it wasn’t hard to understand why. Bolden was a true freshman still learning the playbook, and how to read defenses, he had a shaky line in front of him, and a run game that simply couldn’t get going. The offensive line hadn’t yet gelled, and that, not Bolden, was the underlying reason behind Penn State’s offensive futility.

Why do I recall memories of September? Because it outlines the difference between Bolden and McGloin. Where Bolden operated with a struggling run game, it’s been flourishing the last three weeks under McGloin. That’s been McGloin’s best play–giving it to Royster, or the emerging Silas Redd. Against Minnesota, Penn State ran for 145 yards, then 185 against Michigan before an even more staggering 260 against Northwestern. Suddenly, holes were opening. The backs were breaking tackles, fighting for every inch. Silas Redd put some moves on overmatched defenders that Barry Sanders would’ve been proud of. Am I to believe that the run game suddenly improved just because it was McGloin, not Bolden, handing the ball off?

And please, don’t underestimate the importance of a competent running game on the quarterback. It should come as a surprise to exactly nobody that Rob Bolden’s best game this season came in his one start where Penn State’s ground game got going–as Evan Royster led Penn State backs to a 216-yard day against Temple, Bolden quietly completed 18 of 28 passes for 223 yards, numbers that are eerily similar to those McGloin’s put up the past couple weeks–and against a Temple defense that’s probably better than Michigan, and an even match for Northwestern.

And unlike McGloin, Bolden accomplished those numbers by throwing the ball down the field. Look at that Temple game–he completed 1 pass each to Royster and Stephfon Green. No, it was Justin Brown hauling in 5 passes, Brett Brackett making 4 catches, Moye with 3. That’s what the staff feels they can do with Bolden–he simply has the kind of rocket arm to use the middle of the field. Why has Brett Brackett enjoyed an emergence this season, and why has he been so quiet the past few weeks? Because Rob Bolden can hit him down the seam. McGloin simply doesn’t have the arm to. Justin Brown runs routes down the field–he was enjoying a breakout season when Bolden was throwing to him. With Matt McGloin, the only times Penn State has gone deep it’s been on fade passes (most of which have not been particularly well thrown).

Now, take a look at the box score from Saturday’s matchup with Northwestern. Joe Suhey led the team with 6 catches. Evan Royster added 4. Stephfon Green caught a ball. All but one of those completions–the wheel route to Suhey at the end of the first half–were screen passes. That’s 10 guaranteed completions for a guy who only completed 18 passes all game! And that’s the gameplan Galen and Jay are taking with McGloin–the numbers weren’t as stark in the Michigan win, but that’s because the staff went with another strategy–rolling out McGloin to cut down half the field. He wasn’t asked to sit in the pocket and read the field, but to lock on to one receiver and hit him–and when he’s had to make multiple reads, that’s when he’s gotten in trouble these past few weeks. I suppose the guy we came to know as “McFavre” has been neutered–a gunslinger come game manager. And to be fair, he’s flourished in that role. There’s really nothing more that you could ask from Mac–he’s been great these past few weeks at executing those plays .

But against Ohio State, these strategies won’t work. And neither will McGloin have the kind of time to throw that he has enjoyed the past few weeks. He’s been sacked but once, and rarely pressured–though credit is due to a coaching staff that understands the dangers of an inexperienced quarterback throwing under pressure. Rob Bolden’s last play on Saturday nearly ended with him getting killed–Northwestern came with a big blitz on 3rd and long, Bolden didn’t pick it up, and got absolutely walloped, coughing up the ball in the process. McGloin was never touched.

And while Rob Bolden was pulled after two drives on Saturday, Matt McGloin was given a significantly longer leash. Let’s go back to the first quarter–on Bolden’s first drive Penn State marched the ball down to the Northwestern 32, before Evan Royster was stuffed on 3rd and 2 and then on 4th and 1. Getting the ball back, Bolden marched Penn State down the field once again, to the Northwestern 30 before that sack-fumble. He was 3-4, and picking up where he left off against Minnesota, when he was 11-13 before coming out with the concussion.

The offense didn’t fare as well under McGloin, at least not at first. On his first series, Penn State went three and out. The next drive, they managed a single first down before punting. And after that–you guessed it, another three and out. At that point, Penn State had completed 5 series; two with Bolden under center, and three with McGloin at quarterback. Under Bolden, they’d managed 86 yards of offense. Under McGloin: just 45. In the stands, we figured Bolden had to be hurt. There were calls, I kid you not, for Kevin Newsome.  McGloin was not getting it done.

Granted, it all changed after that. McGloin led the Nittany Lions on their best drive in recent memory, scoring in all of 47 seconds before the end of the first half. And boy, did that success continue into the 2nd half, with touchdowns on the first four drives of the half. But it was the run game that led Penn State to the win–McGloin only attempted 12 passes in the second half. Unless it was his words of encouragement that propelled the run game to its most dominant performance in years, he doesn’t deserve all the credit he’s getting for leading Penn State to the win.

There’s a reason that Rob Bolden was named the starter before the season, despite his inexperience. He’s the most innately talented quarterback to come to Penn State since Kerry Collins, and he’s shown glimpses of that skill throughout the season. As he continues to develop, the sky is the limit. But the staff has, at times, become too enamored with that ability, and asked him to do what he can not. If they were to give Rob the same playbook as McGloin, we’d see the same results. The strategy has been to let the game come to McGloin, but to throw Bolden into the fire, arm first.

There’s no doubt that Bolden is the future of Penn State football. But if he can do just as well as McGloin in the present, isn’t giving him that precious development time worth more than assuming that McGloin can continue his smoke-and-mirrors, dink-and-dunk success? And only by Bolden’s arm, and the opportunities it can create, will Penn State have a chance next week against a better Ohio State team.

If McGloin is under center next week, I’ll root for him just as hard as I would for Rob Bolden. In the end, we’re all Penn State fans. But I’ll feel that Jay, Galen, and Joe Paterno are making a mistake, and Joe will be the first one to tell you he’s not infalliable.