In a little over 3 hours, Penn State men’s basketball will tip off their 2010-2011 campaign, a season that began, unofficially, with a hard-fought exhibition win over East Stroudsburg.  And yet, despite the immediacy of this evening’s game, I’m less than enthused. The anticipation certainly isn’t killing me. And though I’ll be in attendance to watch the Nittany Lions take on the Mountain Hawks of Lehigh, this could just as easily be a break-up letter.

The Good: He's still here!

Last year, at this time, I was psyched. Just months earlier, Penn State had won the NIT–but it was more than that. We whited out the Garden! The BJC was filling up, because the games were of import, and the student support rivaled that of the football team across the street. Perhaps I should’ve known things would only go downhill, given the hardly illustrious history of Penn State basketball, but, foolish me, I thought we were building something.

Then came last season, a 3-16 disaster that made me wish I hadn’t cared so much.  I watched as the Lions lost to teams like Tulane and UNC-Wilmington–the filler on our schedule–to start off the year. And I watched as Ed DeChellis led his team to an 0-12 start to the Big Ten campaign, as they chased a record mark of futility. I watched as Talor Battle seemed alone on the court, surrounded by four teammates who seemed either unwilling or incapable of helping. And after the season, I watched as promising youngsters realized that they wanted to get off this train, as a number of coaches who’d shared Ed’s measure of success–little to none–go by the wayside.  And along the way, my trip down the Seven Stages of Grief invariably ended in anger.

So am I supposed to be excited by the rapidly approaching season opener? Am I supposed to believe that things will be different this time? I believe that was Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity.

“But Devon,” they’ll tell me, “we’re returning so much talent!”

Yeah, from a team that went two thirds of the Big Ten slate without a win. The only player on this entire roster who deserves to start on a major conference team, much less a tournament contender, is Talor Battle (who ought to consider himself immune from all criticism directed at his teammates, for he is above it all). And forgive me for being less than thrilled at the prospects of watching Jeff Brooks be his usual inconsistent self of the course of another long season, at marveling as Andrew Jones continues to forget that he’s 6-foot-freaking-10 and can just go up strong with it. At wondering what the heck Ed is drawing up in the huddle when the only play seems to be “dick around for 34 seconds and let Talor shoot a contested three.” Frankly, we’re at the point where it’s better to tear it all down and start from scratch.

“Well, Taran Buie’s coming in! He’s the most high-profile recruit we’ve ever signed!”

I hate to break it to you, but if you’re expecting Ron-Ron to make an impact from Day 1, you’re in for an unpleasant surprise. Talor Battle, who’s grown into, arguably, the best player in Penn State hoops history was a mixed bag at best in his freshman campaign–scoring 10.2 points per game, but on a stunningly bad 34.5% shooting from the field. Not from three, from the field. I’m sure Buie has raw talent and ability, but he may well be a 6-2 Jeff Brooks-lite, dazzling us with flashes of brilliance but frustrating us with turnovers and freshman mistakes. And if I learned anything from the open practice that I had a chance to sit on in, it’s that Buie’s got a long way to go when it comes to learning the playbook, especially defensively.

The Bad: So is he :-(

“Yeah, but we’ve got these new uniforms…”

I really think that’s about it for arguments from the optimists and the apologists, because other than blind faith there’s no real reason to expect an improvement from this team. In Chris Babb, the team lost a talented and developing three point shooter and on-ball defender, a player who was coming into his own as a reliable second option. With him now transferred to Iowa State, it’s asking far too much from David Jackson for him to be that guy. Jackson would make a very good sixth men on some very good teams, but he’s not up to the task of being Talor’s sidekick.

And lost in Babb’s offensive ability was his defensive prowess–can the backcourt duo of Battle and Tim Frazier–neither of whom stand a hair over 6 foot, no matter what the official roster says, really be expected to handlesome of the bigger combo guards in the Big Ten–a consistently improving conference that is threatening more and more to leave the Lions behind. We can only hope that Ed doesn’t try and mitigate the size  issue by going to a zone defense–we all remember how poorly that worked last season.

Can Penn State compete this year? It’s not impossible, just highly improbable. The improvement will certainly need to be stunning on defense, where they’ll need to challenge shots at the rim–cleaning up the defensive boards is not enough when your opponent is taking high-percentage shots. And on offense, there will need to be a cohesiveness that wasn’t even there in 2008, when Battle had Jamelle Cornely and Stanely Pringle to lighten the load. They’ll need to hit free throws–an unlikely proposition consider they made just 11 of 19 in the exhibition game. And they’ll need to finish games, as opposed to hanging around for 36 minutes and collapsing down the home stretch.

Tim Frazier will have to make a giant leap, from overmatched freshman to immediate contributor, and Taran Buie has to be an effective piece off the bench. The other incoming freshmen–guys like Jonathan Graham, Tre Bowman, Jermaine Marshall, and Billy Oliver, who seemed to lack polish and readiness–are going to have to become solid role players, if nothing else–better than their freshman counterparts of a year ago. And if Jeff Brooks puts it all together–perhaps the unlikeliest proposition in the bunch–perhaps this team does have a shot to make it to the bubble.

Call me a pessimist, but I prefer the term “realist,” and I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than set myself up for more disappointment. Needless to say, I don’t see too many of those coming true. The only good that can come out of this season is if it’s Ed’s last.

Official quebecpenspinning on-the-record Prediction: 14-15 (6-12)